Write a GTM plan you can actually defend.
“How do I build a GTM plan I can defend when the board starts asking questions?”
Verdict-first: the two or three bets, the motions, the targets, the capacity math, and the risks.
What this skill does
Takes your target and your constraints and structures the plan behind them. It forces the plan down to the two or three bets that actually matter, names the motion behind each, sets the targets, runs the capacity math that tells you whether the number is even reachable with the team you have, and lists the risks that would break it. It leads with the verdict: reachable, reachable-if, or not with this capacity.
Inputs
- Works today with: the target, the team you have or plan to hire, your average deal size, your win rate, and your sales cycle. Paste them or upload a simple sheet.
- More powerful connected to a CRM: it reads your real win rate, deal size, and cycle instead of using estimates, so the capacity math is grounded.
- Sharper with a product-analytics tool: adds real funnel conversion so the top-of-funnel target is not a guess.
- Sharper with a data-enrichment source: sizes the addressable market so the bets are checked against reality, not hope.
How it works
- 1Verdict first
The plan opens with the call: REACHABLE, REACHABLE_IF, or NOT_WITH_THIS_CAPACITY. Everything under it is the evidence. A leader should get the answer in the first line and the reasoning in the rest. No burying the gap on slide 14.
- 2Two or three bets
The plan is forced down to a BET_LIMIT of two or three bets, each a specific way you intend to hit the number: a segment, a motion, a product line, a geography. A plan that lists everything commits to nothing. Each bet gets a target and an owner.
- 3Motion per bet
Each bet names the motion that delivers it and the few activities that motion depends on. Outbound bet, it names the account count and the touch model. Expansion bet, it names the base and the trigger. The motion is how the bet actually happens.
- 4Capacity math
The hard check. Ramped-rep capacity times productivity is compared to the target. Working from the target backward through WIN_RATE, DEAL_SIZE, and CYCLE gives the pipeline and the activity the plan requires, then that is checked against the heads and ramp you actually have. If the math does not close, the verdict is REACHABLE_IF and the gap is named in heads, pipeline, or rate.
- 5Risks that break it
Three to five risks, each with the assumption it threatens and an early signal that it is going wrong. Ramp slower than modeled, win rate reverts, a bet under-delivers. Risks are tied to the number, not a generic list.
Output format
GTM PLAN · Q_ · target $4.0M new ARR
VERDICT: REACHABLE_IF (short ~1.5 ramped reps, or +8pts win rate)
The bets:
1. Mid-market outbound target $2.0M owner: Sales lead
2. Install-base expansion target $1.4M owner: CS lead
3. Partner-sourced target $0.6M owner: Partnerships
Capacity math (backward from target):
$4.0M / $40K deal = 100 deals
100 deals / 25% win = 400 qualified opps needed
Current ramped capacity covers ~330 opps
Gap: ~70 opps = ~1.5 reps or an 8-pt win-rate lift
Top risks:
1. New-hire ramp slips a month -> watch week-6 pipeline per rep
2. Expansion trigger softer than modeled -> watch base usage trend
3. Partner motion is unproven -> watch first sourced opp by week 4
Tips
- The plan opens with the verdict, never with context.
- Bets are capped at BET_LIMIT, each with a target and an owner.
- Capacity math is shown working backward from the target, not asserted.
- Every rate used is labeled as actual or estimate, and estimates are flagged.
- Each risk names the assumption it threatens and the signal to watch.
Walk into the forecast call with a number you can defend.
Sorts each deal into commit, best-case, or pipeline by evidence, flags one risk, and scripts what to press each rep on.
Run a pipeline review that finds problems, not recites them.
Coverage vs target, stage aging, week-over-week movement, stuck deals, and the question to ask per deal.